Even die-hard Republicans have to admit that conditions surrounding the 2008 presidential election look very good for the Democrats. A number of these conditions, sometimes referred to as “the fundamentals,” are routinely used in quantitative forecasting models that have proven to be quite accurate over the years. The three fundamentals commonly examined are: public opinion before the fall campaign, the election-year economy, and incumbency.
The President’s Approval Rating: A Key IndicatorÂ
While it is too early for most of the forecasting models to produce a prediction from these fundamentals, it is not too early to notice that the commonly used indicators of the fundamentals will undoubtedly cut in favor of the Democrat and against the Republican this year. A very important early indicator of the way that the campaign is likely to go is public opinion reflected in the president’s approval rating. Historically, the approval rating of the sitting president before the fall campaign has been strongly correlated with the two-party vote in November for the in-party’s candidate. The correlation of the July approval rating and the November in-party vote since the 1948 election is .82.
Presidents have had approval ratings in July of over 46 percent in 9 of the 15 elections since 1948. The in-party candidate went on to win a plurality of the popular vote in 8 of these 9 elections. The only in-party candidate to lose when the president enjoyed a 46-plus rating was Nixon who lost a squeaker to Kennedy in 1960. In the other 6 elections since 1948 with presidents with sub-46 ratings, the in-party record is 1 win and 5 losses. The only candidate to survive poor approval ratings was Harry Truman in 1948. Stevenson in 1952, Humphrey in 1968, Ford in 1976, Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992 ran with sub-46 presidential approval ratings for their parties and each lost his election.
We are a few months away from July, but President Bush’s approval numbers are well south of the mid-40s. This indicator will clearly favor the Democrats this year. The Real Clear Politics average of President Bush’s recent presidential approval numbers are at an anemic 31 percent. He is fully 15 points below what appears to the critical approval level. That is a long and unlikely climb.
The Economy
The economy looks no better for Republicans. The growth rate in the economy is not as closely associated with the vote as approval ratings are, but they have been a pretty good predictor. The correlation of the first half growth rate in the GDP and the vote is .47. When the economy is growing at a three percent (annualized) or stronger clip in the first half of the election year, the in-party’s record is 8 wins and 3 losses since 1948. When the economy was growing at less than three percent, the in-party’s record was only one win (1956) and 3 losses. At this point, no one expects economic growth over the first half of 2008 to be near three percent.
With poor approval ratings for the president, an economy in or near recession, an unpopular war, astronomical gas prices, and without incumbency, it would seem that Democrats should win the 2008 election going away. At least that is the argument from looking at the usual indicators of “the fundamentals.â€
Before inaugurating either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton, however, we should consider several other aspects of the fundamentals that augur a close election in 2008. A couple of indicators may even favor the Republicans. While President Bush’s approval ratings and the weak economy are unquestionably a liability for Senator McCain’s candidacy and he would much prefer running to succeed a very popular President Bush in a time of prosperity, these conditions may not be the political death sentence for the Republicans that some Democratic Party analysts think they are.
Why There’s Still Hope for the RepublicansÂ
First, there is plenty of evidence that the in-party’s record matters more when the incumbent is running than when there is an open seat race as we have this year. Obviously, President Bush’s approval rating would matter more if President Bush were the Republican candidate than it does for Senator McCain. In political science terminology, elections with incumbents are decided on more retrospective grounds and elections without incumbents are decided on more prospective grounds.
Second, there is another reason that President Bush’s low approval numbers may not be insurmountable by Senator McCain: much of the loss of President Bush’s approval since his 2004 reelection has been among Republicans. When President Bush was reelected in 2004, his overall approval rating was 48 percent, but among Republicans it was 93 percent and among Democrats it was only 11 percent. The overall drop to the low 30 percent range meant a drop of 22 points among Republicans (from 93 to 71 percent approval) and almost no loss of support among Democrats (from 11 to 9 percent).
Very few Democrats supported President Bush when he was reelected in 2004 and their numbers have not changed much since. His support among Democrats seems to be limited to Joe Lieberman, Zell Miller, and very few others. The approval loss from 2004 to now is almost completely among independents and Republicans. A group (independents) that Senator McCain has done well with in the past and a group (Republicans) who are very unlikely to support either of the Democrats.
Third, open seat presidential elections in times of close party competition, the situation of 2008, have historically been quite close contests. Since the end of the Civil War, there have been seven open-seat presidential elections when the parties were of nearly equal strength. The winning candidate in 5 of these 7 elections (71 percent) received 51.5 percent of the two-party popular vote. Only 4 of the remaining 28 elections (just 14 percent) were this close. Without an incumbent to galvanize opinions and with predispositions about evenly balanced, the vote has usually been close to a 50-50 split.
There are also two reasons why the Republicans may have an advantage in public opinion leading into the fall campaign, but both of these possible advantages have big questions associated with them.
First, despite the initial concerns about divisions within the Republican Party, the protracted and increasingly contentious nomination battle between Senators Obama and Clinton may have reversed the concerns about party unity. Early party unity is as strongly related to the vote (a correlation of early party unity and the vote is .86) as July approval ratings.
At this point, there are signs that the nomination battle may have taken its toll of early Democratic Party unity. More than half of Democratic primary voters since Super Tuesday have said that one of the candidates attacked the other unfairly and that they would not be satisfied with one of the nominees. More than 40 percent of Clinton voters in these exit polls said that they would not necessarily vote for Obama if he won the party’s nomination. Nearly 30 percent of Obama voters in these primaries indicated a similar antipathy or ambivalence in voting for Clinton should she be the nominee. Party polarization will pull many of these disgruntled partisans back into the fold by the time or at the conventions. The big question is will it be enough, and how strongly must they be courted to bring them back?
The Democrats’ second public opinion problem is ideological. While Republicans confront many problems in 2008, it seems quite clear that Senator McCain (to the consternation of many conservatives) is better positioned to appeal to centrist swing voters than either Senators Obama or Clinton.
One of the many interesting aspects of this election is that the three remaining major party candidates have all served in the Senate at the same time. All three have voting records on the same set of legislation and all three have had their voting records examined by the same organizations. The American Conservative Union (conservative), the Americans for Democratic Action (liberal), and the National Journal (non-partisan) have rated Senators McCain, Obama, and Clinton. Averaging these ratings indicates that Obama has an 89.8 percent liberal rating. Clinton is almost as liberal at 85.4 percent. McCain is 24.9 percent and the median Senator in this period was 40.5 percent liberal. In short, McCain is slightly (15 points) more conservative than the median, while Clinton and Obama are both far more liberal than the median, about 45 and 49 points more liberal. As a consequence, many more voters in 2008 should conclude that their values are shared more by McCain than by either Obama or Clinton and, as both the 2000 and 2004 elections demonstrated, this is critical to winning elections.
At this point, many American voters do not perceive just how liberal Senators Clinton and Obama are. A recent Rasmussen Poll indicated that only slightly more than half of respondents could correctly label the extremely liberal Senators Obama and Clinton as liberals. With just over twenty percent of the electorate identifying themselves as liberals, this misperception of Obama and Clinton as moderates is a big advantage to Democrats. Maybe next to Dennis Kucinich and the normal Democratic activist they look moderate, but in the broader political spectrum they are quite far to the left.
The major task of the Republican campaign between now and the parties’ conventions should be to educate voters to the ideological records of the Democrats’ candidates. If the Republicans are able to do so, they may be able to tip public opinion among moderate swing voters away from the liberal options and toward the moderate-conservative McCain. Senator Obama’s close associations with the intemperate Reverend Jeremiah Wright and with radical Weather Underground terrorist Bill Ayers should make it easier to demonstrate just how far left Senator Obama really is.
Potential Minefields: Race, Gender, and AggressivenessÂ
There is plenty of evidence available that can be used by Republicans to pull public opinion in McCain’s direction and to convince sensible moderates that the Democrats have not nominated an acceptably mainstream alternative, whether Obama or Clinton ends up as the Democratic Party’s nominee. The big question regarding this Republican advantage is whether Senator McCain is tough enough to make the case against the Democrats.
To date there is real reason to be concerned that the Republican nominee possesses the toughness necessary to correct the falsely moderate images that Clinton and Obama have been able to cultivate. McCain seems to have elevated the lack of toughness to a principle. He seems more inclined to apologize for the toughness of his own supporters and those in his party than to aggressively take on his Democrat opponents. As Al Gore demonstrated in 2000, it is often not enough to have the fundamentals in your favor; their impact on the vote depends at least in part on the candidates making good use of their advantages in their campaigns.
This election may hinge on whether Senator McCain makes good use of his advantages. We know that the senator was heroic and honorable as a prisoner during war; the question now is whether he will be aggressive and smart on the political battlefield this year.
Beyond the problem of McCain’s temperament of trying to be above politics is either the race or gender of his opponent. An aggressive campaign fought against either a woman or a black opponent is filled with minefields. It is a virtual certainty that the race or gender cards will be played as a defense against any part of the campaign that uncomfortably challenges Obama or Clinton. While Republicans must be careful to avoid any suggestion that their appeals are remotely about race or gender, they must be even more careful not to be cowed into backing off of an aggressive campaign.
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The Democratic contest goes on, but as I predicted in my post two months ago, it is essentially over (“Is the Democratic Race Over?†February 19, 2008). To win the nomination, Hillary Clinton must win both North Carolina and Indiana on May 6. This is a nearly impossible task given the very favorable demographics for Barack Obama in North Carolina. Indiana remains a toss-up.